The First Indictments From Mueller Have Arrived
Early yesterday morning Robert Mueller publicly disclosed the first charges to have officially been filed as part of the special investigation. Paul Manafort, and his associate Rick Gates, turned themselves into the FBI on 12 separate charges, including conspiracy against the United States. They would go on to plead not guilty . George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy advisor to the Trump campaign, plead guilty to lying to the FBI regarding his contacts with various Russians. The investigation, that has been attacked by Trump as “the greatest witch hunt in history”, has finally shown its teeth.
But what comes next? Charges such as this could have damming ramifications for the Trump administration. Manafort was, at one time, campaign manager for the Trump presidential campaign, with apparent close ties to Trump himself. There is a possibility that the charges against Manafort can be used to obtain additional information on the rest of the Trump campaign, which may even be Mueller's goal. This could lead to the Democrats calling for impeachment, impeachment could even become a make or break issue for whether candidates receive Democratic support in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections. Whether or not the current GOP held Congress would support impeachment is yet to be seen, however it is rather unlikely. Currently, notable figures in Congress are trying to deflect away from issues relating to Trump by framing various Russia investigations as looking into Hillary Clinton.
The charges could possibly spur significant backlash from the Trump administration. Trump is currently attacking the investigation with various “...but Hillary” claims. Republicans in congress have recently begun investigations into the "uranium one" controversy, this is likely being used as more of a deflection tactic than anything substantial. As the investigation moves closer and closer to Trump, and as the amount of charges increase on those close to Trump, we reach a moment where the stress Trump faces may be too much for him to handle. Trump may begin to abuse the powers of the presidency to protect his friends, family, and allies, he could potentially pardon anyone charged in the special investigation, effectively rendering the investigations efforts pointless. Trump could even attempt to dismiss Mueller and end the investigation entirely. This would require the support of the Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, he is the only person currently with the power to appoint or dismiss a Special Counsel. Trump could quite possibly emulate Richard Nixon, by firing and subsequently appointing new deputy attorney generals until someone does fire Mueller and end the special investigation.
This puts the American public into a relative period of uncertainty. The standing of the president is in question and trust in our electoral process could be effectively shaken, should the results of the special investigation show greater amounts of foreign interference than initially feared. While there is precedent for the removal of a single president from office, if the investigation is as far reaching that the entire administration is put into question, there is likely no precedent for what to do then. It's a pretty morose situation to think about, that the entire presidential administration could be implicated in a scheme to work with a foreign government to "steal" the presidency, but it is one we must face head on. The consequences of ignorance are too great.
This puts the American public into a relative period of uncertainty. The standing of the president is in question and trust in our electoral process could be effectively shaken, should the results of the special investigation show greater amounts of foreign interference than initially feared. While there is precedent for the removal of a single president from office, if the investigation is as far reaching that the entire administration is put into question, there is likely no precedent for what to do then. It's a pretty morose situation to think about, that the entire presidential administration could be implicated in a scheme to work with a foreign government to "steal" the presidency, but it is one we must face head on. The consequences of ignorance are too great.